Coffee's New Wave ~~ 🌊 ~~

The trends splintering coffee into a 5th wave

Intro

As someone very much interested in this beverage, and being a committed industry enthusiast, I think a new 'distributed wave' of coffee is coming, one that is mix of various splintering waves. Before I get into that though...

The Previous Waves

The previous chapters of coffee in the last few decades are denoted by waves, which this graphic quickly briefs:

Source: District Roasters

Folgers -> Starbucks/Peets -> Blue Bottle/Intelligentsia -> Your Local Japandi Coffee Shop

Most larger cities have a mix of 3rd and 4th wave coffee shops. The fourth wave... think of your local Japandi coffee shop selling handmade ceramics and pour overs in addition to espresso drinks. The largest of these shops roast their own beans, too, focusing on direct (from farmer) trade and single-origin coffees (coffee from a single farm instead of a blend of various coffees). Some 4th wave shops even roast their own selection and sell it online to the globe, helping spread the gospel of their take on the 4th wave’s tenants. I allege that the 4th wave is nearing its peak, splitting the coffee world into new and more characteristic waves. Certain aspects of the 4th wave will result in the 5th waves I outline below:

The 5th Waves

5.1

A further distillation and/or iteration of the 4th wave. District Roasters describes the 4th wave as: "a marriage between stellar coffee products and truly worthwhile social consciousness... The fourth wave worldview is one of partnership from source to sip and back to the source." 4th wave coffee roasters have already begun working directly with farmers to push coffee processing towards new flavors (to target specific flavors and further differentiate their coffee). This typically takes money, trust, and time, as fruit bearing coffee plants need time to mature, and novel processing methods can only be attempted a handful of times on each crop. Hydrangea Coffee is an extreme example of this, an online 'micro roaster' that works exclusively with bizarrely processed coffee. They exclusively lightly roast (to let the flavor of the beans shine) beans that have had many days of fermentation, were macerated with lots of fruit, grown unique soils, etc. In a way, this splinter views the farmer as the artist, the roaster and barista both as the exhibitionists, and the coffee the nebulous art of their toil.

5.2

Paulig Barista Institute argues the defining characteristics of 4th wave coffee are generally "the science of coffee, accuracy in brewing, deep understanding of coffee properties, water chemistry, developed brewing equipment." This pairs with the rise of YouTube channels and gear centricity associated with this niche. TikTok style 'morning coffee routine' sizzle reels that make the often surprisingly complex and delicate process of brewing coffee easier often advertise just another gadget (Normcore, Weber Workshops) to purchase to help the viewer towards this aspiration. This 'fetishization of the coffee aesthetic' (especially the one above) is corroborated by a Mintel report, and matches trends in many hobbies as they are monetized by other industries.

5.3

Some people just want iced drinks, a.k.a. a larger return to 2nd/3rd wave coffee. Not everyone wants to understand how the nuances of a honey-processed (no honey involved lol) natural Rwandan coffee impacts their caffeine fix... nor do people want the perfect automated or routined approach to manage these process either. This is further discussed by the Boss Barista Substack. Sometimes people just want a tasty, familiar cup that works after an easy brewing process. Easy going anti 3rd wave celebrity brands (Emma Chamberlain's Chamberlain Coffee, even Jimmy Butler’s Big Face Coffee) also falls into this bucket, and is mentioned in the previous Mintel report.

Conclusion

All three of these waves are happening and growing -- they all have their place. Personally, I admire the new ultra-processed coffees and think the unique flavors they produce is fun to try. I am sympathetic to some of the technological aspects of the fetishized approach towards coffee brewing (especially in commercial applications) but in practice I think it misses the point. And, with climate change we'll need a new strain of coffee that grows better in warmer conditions anyway.

With that, which wave sounds most appealing to you? Or, antipodaly, will you stick with a current wave?

Misc. Updates

• Cool house I like the photo of him in his office

• A step saving kitchen

• A landscape photographer who never pictures the sky

And with that, I'll see you all with another more casual update soon… but after that a potential slow down: I start work and won't have my right hand for a month!

Take care everyone,

Andrei